Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 29.418374 31.575069 33.895394 36.592017 39.658635 43.060420 47.151746
2025-04-20 26.793341 29.819767 33.282693 37.594746 42.903511 49.343340 57.941083
2025-04-27 25.170830 28.696617 32.903013 38.403419 45.587855 54.940781 68.584322
2025-05-04 23.835071 27.673958 32.403502 38.833222 47.652112 59.857007 79.174411
2025-05-11 22.483341 26.464296 31.490090 38.532728 48.579265 63.212952 88.106048
2025-05-18 21.273604 25.317321 30.524481 38.006605 49.042154 65.855193 96.422585
2025-05-25 20.175885 24.227547 29.530678 37.312322 49.121735 67.839987 104.021434
2025-06-01 19.231180 23.274084 28.641764 36.666235 49.162466 69.710854 111.859155
2025-06-08 18.300216 22.283478 27.631832 35.747282 48.652708 70.532046 117.771324
2025-06-15 18.058985 22.209451 27.885743 36.713845 51.258386 77.261692 138.924438
2025-06-22 17.509161 21.676699 27.447253 36.574282 51.986803 80.614518 153.525334
2025-06-29 16.862586 20.977123 26.725928 35.932107 51.767925 82.054908 163.731366
2025-07-06 16.106494 20.111512 25.746687 34.859084 50.764588 81.911410 170.024384
2025-07-13 15.939748 20.075565 25.990239 35.775380 53.462112 90.162522 207.769349
2025-07-20 15.738934 19.977074 26.128186 36.520668 55.933921 98.570830 254.736917
2025-07-27 15.466238 19.758703 26.066468 36.916396 57.773766 105.994549 307.622887
2025-08-03 15.055957 19.319250 25.637291 36.639748 58.218850 109.988240 350.091250
2025-08-10 14.625604 18.833369 25.111713 36.155109 58.174774 112.671812 390.177131
2025-08-17 14.187114 18.320126 24.520549 35.515041 57.732799 114.155824 426.089485
2025-08-24 13.783078 17.845725 23.972065 34.918862 57.326992 115.686785 467.049853
2025-08-31 13.346565 17.309483 23.304900 34.069985 56.288114 115.105806 490.395716
2025-09-07 13.295588 17.355830 23.576876 34.962811 59.245810 127.984204 700.474397
2025-09-14 13.040817 17.081044 23.312666 34.833969 59.843291 133.333158 861.319433